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| Registros recuperados: 26 | |
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| Lofgren, Hans. |
| Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are a class of economywide models that are widely used for policy analysis in developing countries. This paper provides a detailed documentation of an applied CGE model of Malawi the first ever for Malawi developed in the context of the project Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening for Multi-Sector Policy Analysis in Malawi and Southern Africa. The purpose of this paper is to serve as a source of background information for analysts using the model in the context of the current project and in the future. The model is built around a 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Malawi, which was developed in the context of the current project, is based on data from the 1998 Integrated Household Survey... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16264 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James. |
| Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon. The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects. We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining. Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption. The... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Chulu, Osten; Sichinga, Osky; Simtowe, Franklin; Tchale, Hardwick; Teska, Ralph; Wobst, Peter. |
| Two sets of issues loom large on the economic horizon of Malawi: poverty alleviation and the countrys vulnerability to shocks emanating from the outside world. In this paper, simulations with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Malawi are used to analyze aspects of these issues. The primary database that is used is a 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Malawi which in part is based on the recently published Malawian Integrated Household Survey (IHS) 1997-98. The simulations explore the effects of external shocks and domestic policy changes aimed at poverty alleviation. The external shocks reflect episodes to which Malawis economy has been exposed in recent times: changes in the international prices of tobacco and petroleum products and... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16299 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Richards, Alan. |
| In MENA, household food insecurity, which is closely related to poverty and undernourishment, is most severe in rural areas and concentrated within Iraq, Sudan, and Yemen. 25% of the MENA population may be poor and 7% undernourished. The key to increased national and household-level food security is pro-poor growth, driven by export-oriented, labor-intensive sectors. Agricultural sector policies should be subordinate to the pro-poor growth goal and not to the goal of food self-sufficiency. Such a strategy requires conflict resolution; macroeconomic stability; physical and human capital accumulation; reliance on markets and the private sector, and diffusion of ecologically friendly farming practices. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Middle East and North Africa; Food security; Poverty; Agriculture; Development strategy; Food Security and Poverty; O13; O53; Q18. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16274 |
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| Dorward, Andrew; Fan, Shenggen; Kydd, Jonathan; Lofgren, Hans; Morrison, Jamie; Poulton, Colin; Rao, Neetha; Smith, Laurence; Tchale, Hardwick; Thorat, Sukhadeo; Urey, Ian; Wobst, Peter. |
| This paper draws together findings from different elements of a research project examining critical components of pro-poor agricultural growth and of policies that can promote such growth in poor rural economies in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural growth, a critical driver in poverty reducing growth in many poor agrarian economies in the past, faces many difficulties in today’s poor rural areas in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of these difficulties are endogenous to these areas while others result from broader processes of global change. Active state interventions in ‘kick starting’ markets in 20th century green revolutions suggest that another major difficulty may be current policies which emphasize the benefits of liberalization... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural growth; Rural poverty; Sub-Saharan Africa; Green Revolution; India; International Development. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60170 |
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| Robilliard, Anne-Sophie; Sukume, Chrispen; Yanoma, Yukitsugu; Lofgren, Hans. |
| There is widespread agreement on the need for land reform in Zimbabwe as a means of reducing poverty. This paper assesses the potential consequences of a land-reform scheme that draws on proposals from Zimbabwe’s government in 1998 and 1999. We analyze the impact of the reform on resettled farm households and as a development project for which we conduct cost-benefit analysis. The analysis, which considers costs and benefits during a 15-year period, relies on a set of models of family farms that are typical of those that would benefit from land redistribution. The cost-benefit analysis is more comprehensive, also considering the different costs and benefits that affect the government. The results of our analysis indicate that a government-supported land... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16268 |
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| Lofgren, Hans. |
| In this paper, the impact of alternative development strategies on growth and poverty is assessed in an economywide framework, using Egypt as a case study. The analysis is guided by the following question: By pursuing a development strategy different from the one actually pursued since the late 1970s, could Egypt’s government significantly have improved the status of its poor? To address this question, a dynamic, recursive, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate Egypt’s economy for the period 1979-1997. The model is built around a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 1979. The base scenario incorporates Egypt’s evolving policy regime and changes in Egypt’s external environment, including a gradual transition toward an economy with... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16265 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James. |
| As a result of Zambia's dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact of a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of the copper mining sector are modeled using a 1995 computable general equilibrium model for Zambia. Results indicate that the fall in world copper prices will place significant pressure on non- mining exports, with much of the burden of raising foreign exchange falling on the food, beverages and tobacco, and textiles and garment sectors. However, the agricultural and agro-related industries are the most export-responsive (albeit from initially low... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16309 |
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| Bautista, Romeo M.; Thomas, Marcelle; Muir-Leresche, Kay; Lofgren, Hans. |
| This report investigates the income and equity effects of macroeconomic policy reforms in Zimbabwe, emphasizing linkages between macroeconomic policies and agricultural performance and agriculture's influence on aggregate income and its distribution. Analyses focus on reform of the foreign trade regime, public expenditure, and tax policy, along with the potential benefits of combining these structural changes with various land reform scenarios. The study uses a CGE model that provides a policy simulation laboratory in which exogenous policy changes are analyzed for their economywide income and equity effects. The report highlights the need for policy complementarities in Zimbabwe that can contribute to equitable growth. It should be of interest not only... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Political Economy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16521 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Thurlow, James; Robinson, Sherman. |
| Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining. Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Development. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60181 |
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| San, Nu Nu; Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman. |
| The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro instability, and the need for a “structural adjustment” program. The real devaluation affects prices throughout the economy and has a major impact on growth, production, deforestation, and income distribution in the Sumatera region. This paper uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) models —a national model and a regional model of Sumatera— that focus on agriculture to explore the impact of a real devaluation on the economy of Sumatera. The model incorporates commodity and factor market linkages between Sumatera, the rest of Indonesia, and the world (through commodity trade). Simulations are conducted for the short and medium run under alternative scenarios of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16319 |
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| Dorosh, Paul A.; El-Said, Moataz; Lofgren, Hans. |
| In Uganda, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is concentrated in rural areas. Because agriculture accounts for a large share of incomes for these households, policies and external shocks that affect agriculture, including shifts in world prices, changes in agricultural productivity, and reductions in marketing costs, may have significant effects on rural poverty. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Ugandan economy, explicitly designed to capture regional variations in agricultural production and household incomes, to examine the implications of these policy changes and shocks. Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government's target) would increase rural consumption by less... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25846 |
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| Registros recuperados: 26 | |
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